| Contents | 6 |
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| Preface | 8 |
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| Part I: Projections of Care Need and Care Resources | 13 |
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| People in Need of Long-term Care: The Present and the Future | 14 |
| 1. Introduction | 14 |
| 2. In Retrospect: The Development of the Number of People in Need of Long-term Care from 1999 to 2005 | 14 |
| 2.1 Persons in Need of Long-term Care by Type of Care | 14 |
| 2.2 Explanations of Terms Relating to Long-term Care Statistics | 16 |
| 2.3 The Development of Persons in Need of Care by Care Level | 16 |
| 2.4 Past Developments of the Number of Persons in Care at Länder-level | 17 |
| 3. Age-specific Rates of Long-term Care in December 2005 | 18 |
| 4. Development of the Numbers of People in Need of Care in Germany up to 2030 and in the Länder up to 2020 Status-quo Scenario | 20 |
| 4.1 Projection for Germany | 20 |
| Excursus: Declining Long-term Care Rates from 1999 to 2005? | 21 |
| 4.2 Projections for the Länder | 23 |
| 5. Persons in Need of Care in Germany in 2020 and 2030 Scenario of “Declining Care Rates” | 23 |
| 6. References to other Projections | 25 |
| References | 27 |
| Care Need Projections for Germany until 2050 | 29 |
| 1. Introduction | 29 |
| 2. Deterministic Projection | 30 |
| 2.1 Methodology and Assumptions | 30 |
| 2.2 Results | 32 |
| 3. Sensitivity Analysis | 35 |
| 4. Conclusion | 39 |
| References | 40 |
| Care Need Projections by Marital Status and Childlessness for Germany 2000-2030 based on the FELICIE Project | 42 |
| 1. Introduction | 42 |
| 2. Gender Proportions | 43 |
| 3. Family Status among German Elderly and Future Developments | 45 |
| 4. Childlessness in Germany in the Female Birth Cohorts 1900 to 1968 | 49 |
| 5. The Prevalence of Care Need and the FELICIE Care Need Projections | 50 |
| 6. Summary and Discussion | 56 |
| Literature | 58 |
| Projection of Care Need and Family Resources in Germany | 61 |
| 1. Introduction | 61 |
| 2. Population Development and the Need for Care | 63 |
| 2.1 Population Projection by the DIW Assumptions | 63 |
| 2.2 Decline in Population, but Marked Increase in the Share of the Elderly until 2050 | 63 |
| 2.3 Sharp Increase in the Number of People in Need of Care | 65 |
| 3. Changes in Care Giving Potential | 66 |
| 3.1 Impact of Changing Living Arrangements of the Elderly | 67 |
| 3.2 The Influence of Female Labour Force Participation | 68 |
| 3.3 Estimation of Care Giving Potential by 2050 | 70 |
| 3.4 Ratio of People in Need of Care to Potential Care Givers | 72 |
| 4. Influence of Changing Health Status | 75 |
| 5. Conclusion | 78 |
| Appendix | 79 |
| References | 81 |
| Cohort Trends in Disability and Future Care Need in Germany | 82 |
| 1. Introduction | 82 |
| 2. Data and Methods | 82 |
| 3. Results | 84 |
| 5. Discussion | 90 |
| References | 92 |
| Projections of the Number of People with Dementia in Germany 2002 Through 2047 | 94 |
| 1. Introduction | 94 |
| 2. Dementia in Germany Today | 96 |
| 2.1 Prevalence of Dementia | 96 |
| 2.2 Projections of Numbers of People with Dementia in Germany | 97 |
| 3. Data and Projection Method | 99 |
| 4. Results | 100 |
| 4.1 Projection of the Number of People with Dementia | 100 |
| 4.2 Dementia-Free Life Expectancy at Ages 80-84 in Germany in 2002 | 104 |
| 4.3 Dementia-Free Life Expectancy at Ages 80-84 in Germany in 2047 | 104 |
| 5. Discussion | 105 |
| References | 108 |
| Part II: Health Factors and Care Determinants | 112 |
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| The Effect of Sex, Obesity and Smoking on Health Transitions: A Statistical Meta-analysis | 113 |
| 1. Introduction | 113 |
| 2. Methods | 114 |
| 2.1 Study Selection | 114 |
| 2.2 Measures of Outcome | 115 |
| 2.3 Measures of Risk Factors | 116 |
| 2.4 Statistical Analysis | 116 |
| 3. Results | 117 |
| 3.1 Search Results | 117 |
| 3.2 Sex | 118 |
| 3.3 Obesity | 118 |
| 3.4 Smoking | 124 |
| 3.5 Effect of Study Characteristics | 127 |
| 4. Discussion | 127 |
| 4.1 Summary of Main Findings | 127 |
| 4.2 Strengths and Limitations of this Study | 128 |
| 4.3 Implications for Future Research | 129 |
| 5. Acknowledgements | 130 |
| Appendix | 131 |
| Meta-regression Results
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