| Preface | 5 |
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| Contents | 9 |
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| Abbreviations and notation | 13 |
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| 1 Second-order spatial models and geostatistics | 16 |
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| 1.1 Some background in stochastic processes | 17 |
| 1.2 Stationary processes | 18 |
| 1.2.1 Definitions and examples | 18 |
| 1.2.2 Spectral representation of covariances | 20 |
| 1.3 Intrinsic processes and variograms | 23 |
| 1.3.1 Definitions, examples and properties | 23 |
| 1.3.2 Variograms for stationary processes | 25 |
| 1.3.3 Examples of covariances and variograms | 26 |
| 1.3.4 Anisotropy | 29 |
| 1.4 Geometric properties: continuity, differentiability | 30 |
| 1.4.1 Continuity and differentiability: the stationary case | 32 |
| 1.5 Spatial modeling using convolutions | 34 |
| 1.5.1 Continuous model | 34 |
| 1.5.2 Discrete convolution | 36 |
| 1.6 Spatio-temporal models | 37 |
| 1.7 Spatial autoregressive models | 40 |
| 1.7.1 Stationary MA and ARMA models | 41 |
| 1.7.2 Stationary simultaneous autoregression | 43 |
| 1.7.3 Stationary conditional autoregression | 45 |
| 1.7.4 Non-stationary autoregressive models on finite networks S | 49 |
| 1.7.5 Autoregressive models with covariates | 52 |
| 1.8 Spatial regression models | 53 |
| 1.9 Prediction when the covariance is known | 57 |
| 1.9.1 Simple kriging | 58 |
| 1.9.2 Universal kriging | 59 |
| 1.9.3 Simulated experiments | 60 |
| Exercises | 62 |
| 2 Gibbs-Markov random fields on networks | 68 |
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| 2.1 Compatibility of conditional distributions | 69 |
| 2.2 Gibbs random fields on S | 70 |
| 2.2.1 Interaction potential and Gibbs specification | 70 |
| 2.2.2 Examples of Gibbs specifications | 72 |
| 2.3 Markov random fields and Gibbs random fields | 79 |
| 2.3.1 Definitions: cliques, Markov random field | 79 |
| 2.3.2 The Hammersley-Clifford theorem | 80 |
| 2.4 Besag auto-models | 82 |
| 2.4.1 Compatible conditional distributions and auto-models | 82 |
| 2.4.2 Examples of auto-models | 83 |
| 2.5 Markov random field dynamics | 88 |
| 2.5.1 Markov chain Markov random field dynamics | 89 |
| 2.5.2 Examples of dynamics | 89 |
| Exercises | 91 |
| 3 Spatial point processes | 96 |
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| 3.1 Definitions and notation | 97 |
| 3.1.1 Exponential spaces | 98 |
| 3.1.2 Moments of a point process | 100 |
| 3.1.3 Examples of point processes | 102 |
| 3.2 Poisson point process | 104 |
| 3.3 Cox point process | 106 |
| 3.3.1 log-Gaussian Cox process | 106 |
| 3.3.2 Doubly stochastic Poisson point process | 107 |
| 3.4 Point process density | 107 |
| 3.4.1 Definition | 108 |
| 3.4.2 Gibbs point process | 109 |
| 3.5 Nearest neighbor distances for point processes | 113 |
| 3.5.1 Palm measure | 113 |
| 3.5.2 Two nearest neighbor distances for X | 114 |
| 3.5.3 Second-order reduced moments | 115 |
| 3.6 Markov point process | 117 |
| 3.6.1 The Ripley-Kelly Markov property | 117 |
| 3.6.2 Markov nearest neighbor property | 119 |
| 3.6.3 Gibbs point process on Rd | 122 |
| Exercises | 123 |
| 4 Simulation of spatial models | 125 |
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| 4.1 Convergence of Markov chains | 126 |
| 4.1.1 Strong law of large numbers and central limit theorem for a homogeneous Markov chain | 131 |
| 4.2 Two Markov chain simulation algorithms | 132 |
| 4.2.1 Gibbs sampling on product spaces | 132 |
| 4.2.2 The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm | 134 |
| 4.3 Simulating a Markov random field on a network | 138 |
| 4.3.1 The two standard algorithms | 138 |
| 4.3.2 Examples | 139 |
| 4.3.3 Constrained simulation | 142 |
| 4.3.4 Simulating Markov chain dynamics | 143 |
| 4.4 Simulation of a point process | 143 |
| 4.4.1 Simulation conditional on a fixed number of points | 144 |
| 4.4.2 Unconditional simulation | 144 |
| 4.4.3 Simulation of a Cox point process | 145 |
| 4.5 Performance and convergence of MCMC methods | 146 |
| 4.5.1 Performance of MCMC methods | 146 |
| 4.5.2 Two methods for quantifying rates of convergence | 147 |
| 4.6 Exact simulation using coupling from the past | 150 |
| 4.6.1 The Propp-Wilson algorithm | 150 |
| 4.6.2 Two improvements to the algorithm | 152 |
| 4.7 Simulating Gaussian random fields on SRd | 154 |
| 4.7.1 Simulating stationary Gaussian random fields | 154 |
| 4.7.2 Conditional Gaussian simulation | 158 |
| Exercises | 158 |
| 5 Statistics for spatial models | 163 |
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| 5.1 Estimation in geostatistics | 164 |
| 5.1.1 Analyzing the variogram cloud | 164 |
| 5.1.2 Empirically estimating the variogram | 165 |
| 5.1.3 Parametric estimation for variogram models | 168 |
| 5.1.4 Estimating variograms when there is a trend | 170 |
| 5.1.5 Validating variogram models | 172 |
| 5.2 Autocorrelation on spatial networks | 179 |