| Preface | 7 |
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| Contents | 10 |
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| Contributors | 17 |
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| 1 Introduction | 25 |
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| 1.1 Part 1: Applied statistical theory | 25 |
| 1.2 Part 2: The case studies | 27 |
| 1.3 Data, software and flowcharts | 30 |
| 2 Data management and software | 31 |
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| 2.1 Introduction | 31 |
| 2.2 Data management | 32 |
| 2.3 Data preparation | 33 |
| 2.4 Statistical software | 37 |
| 3 Advice for teachers | 41 |
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| 3.1 Introduction | 41 |
| 4 Exploration | 47 |
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| 4.1 The first steps | 48 |
| 4.2 Outliers, transformations and standardisations | 62 |
| 4.3 A final thought on data exploration | 71 |
| 5 Linear regression | 73 |
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| 5.1 Bivariate linear regression | 73 |
| 5.2 Multiple linear regression | 91 |
| 5.3 Partial linear regression | 97 |
| 6 Generalised linear modelling | 102 |
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| 6.1 Poisson regression | 102 |
| 6.2 Logistic regression | 111 |
| 7 Additive and generalised additive modelling | 120 |
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| 7.1 Introduction | 120 |
| 7.2 The additive model | 124 |
| 7.3 Example of an additive model | 125 |
| 7.4 Estimate the smoother and amount of smoothing | 127 |
| 7.5 Additive models with multiple explanatory variables | 131 |
| 7.6 Choosing the amount of smoothing | 135 |
| 7.7 Model selection and validation | 138 |
| 7.8 Generalised additive modelling | 143 |
| 7.9 Where to go from here | 147 |
| 8 Introduction to mixed modelling | 148 |
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| 8.1 Introduction | 148 |
| 8.2 The random intercept and slope model | 151 |
| 8.3 Model selection and validation | 153 |
| 8.4 A bit of theory | 158 |
| 8.5 Another mixed modelling example | 160 |
| 8.6 Additive mixed modelling | 163 |
| 9 Univariate tree models | 166 |
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| 9.1 Introduction | 166 |
| 9.2 Pruning the tree | 172 |
| 9.3 Classification trees | 175 |
| 9.4 A detailed example: Ditch data | 175 |
| 10 Measures of association | 185 |
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| 10.1 Introduction | 185 |
| 10.2 Association between sites: Q analysis | 186 |
| 10.3 Association among species: R analysis | 193 |
| 10.4 Q and R analysis: Concluding remarks | 198 |
| 10.5 Hypothesis testing with measures of association | 201 |
| 11 Ordination — First encounter | 210 |
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| 11.1 Bray- Curtis ordination | 210 |
| 12 Principal component analysis and redundancy analysis | 214 |
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| 12.1 The underlying principle of PCA | 214 |
| 12.2 PCA: Two easy explanations | 215 |
| 12.3 PCA: Two technical explanations | 217 |
| 12.4 Example of PCA | 218 |
| 12.5 The biplot | 221 |
| 12.6 General remarks | 226 |
| 12.7 Chord and Hellinger transformations | 227 |
| 12.8 Explanatory variables | 229 |
| 12.9 Redundancy analysis | 231 |
| 12.10 Partial RDA and variance partitioning | 240 |
| 12.11 PCA regression to deal with collinearity | 242 |
| 13 Correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis | 246 |
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| 13.1 Gaussian regression and extensions | 246 |
| 13.2 Three rationales for correspondence analysis | 252 |
| 13.3 From RGR to CCA | 259 |
| 13.4 Understanding the CCAtriplot | 261 |
| 13.5 When to use PCA, CA, RDA or CCA | 263 |
| 13.6 Problems with CA and CCA | 264 |
| 14 Introduction to discriminant analysis | 266 |
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| 14.1 Introduction | 266 |
| 14.2 Assumptions | 269 |
| 14.3 Example | 271 |
| 14.4 The mathematics | 275 |
| 14.5 The numerical output for the sparrow data | 276 |
| 15 Principal coordinate analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling | 280 |
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| 15.1 Principal coordinate analysis | 280 |
| 15.2 Non-metric multidimensional scaling | 282 |
| 16 Time series analysis — Introduction | 286 |
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| 16.1 Using what we have already seen before | 286 |
| 16.2 Auto-regressive integrated moving average models with exogenous variables | 302 |
| 17 Common trends and sudden changes | 310 |
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| 17.1 Repeated LOESS smoothing | 310 |
| 17.2 Identifying the seasonal component | 314 |
| 17.3 Common trends: MAFA | 320 |
| 17.4 Common trends: Dynamic factor analysis | 324 |
| 17.5 Sudden changes: Chronological clustering | 336 |
| 18 Analysis and modelling of lattice data | 342 |
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| 18.1 Lattice data | 342 |
| 18.2 Numerical representation of the lattice structure | 344 |
| 18.3 Spatial correlation | 348 |
| 18.4 Modelling lattice data | 352 |
| 18.5 More exotic models | 355 |
| 18.6 Summary | 359 |
| 19 Spatially continuous data analysis and modelling | 361 |
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| 19.1 Spatially continuous data | 361 |
| 19.2 Geostatistical functions and assumptions | 362 |
| 19.3 Explora
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