| Dedication | 6 |
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| Abstract | 7 |
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| Contents | 8 |
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| List of Abbreviations, Symbols and Indices | 11 |
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| Abbreviations | 11 |
| Symbols | 11 |
| Indices | 12 |
| 1 Drivers of Change and Energy Models | 13 |
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| 1.1 Introduction | 13 |
| 1.2 Drivers of Change | 14 |
| 1.3 Energy Models a Review of the State of the Art | 21 |
| 1.4 Motivation and Research Questions | 23 |
| 2 Model Design | 25 |
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| 2.1 Introduction | 25 |
| 2.2 Users and Intentions | 25 |
| 2.3 Geographical and Socio-economic Scope | 26 |
| 2.4 The Layer Concept | 28 |
| 2.5 Discussion | 40 |
| 3 Private Actor Model | 42 |
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| 3.1 Introduction | 42 |
| 3.2 Private Energy Investment Decisions | 43 |
| 3.3 Bounded Rational Decision Models | 47 |
| 3.4 Modeling Private Energy Investment Decisions | 52 |
| 3.5 Results | 62 |
| 3.6 Discussion | 75 |
| 4 Commercial Actor Model | 78 |
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| 4.1 Introduction | 78 |
| 4.2 Commercial Energy Investment Decisions | 79 |
| 4.3 Aggregation of the Firm | 84 |
| 4.4 Decisions Model | 90 |
| 4.5 Application and Results | 93 |
| 4.6 Discussion | 103 |
| 5 Conclusions | 106 |
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| 5.1 Introduction | 106 |
| 5.2 Discussion of the Model Design | 106 |
| 5.3 Outlook | 108 |
| Appendix | 110 |
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| A.1 Private Actor Model | 110 |
| A.2 Commercial Actor Model | 116 |
| References | 118 |
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